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Here is how to play the altcoin game - for newbies & champs

I have been here for many previous altcoin seasons (2013,2017 etc) and wanted to share knowedle. It's a LOOONG article.
The evaluation of altcoins (i.e not Bitcoin) is one of the most difficult and profitable exercises. Here I will outline my methodology and thinking but we have to take some things as a given. The first is that the whole market is going up or down with forces that we can't predict or control. Bitcoin is correlated with economic environments, money supply increases, safe havens such as Gold, hype and country regulations. This is an impossible mix to analyze and almost everyone fails at it. That's why you see people valuing Bitcoin from $100 to $500k frequently. Although I am bullish on the prospects of Bitcoin and decentralization and smart contract platforms, this is not the game I will be describing. I am talking about a game where you try to maximize your BTC holdings by investing in altcoins. We win this game even if we are at a loss in fiat currency value. To put it another way:
If you are not bullish in general on cryptocurrencies you have no place in investing or trading cryptocurrencies since it's always a losing proposition to trade in bubbles, a scientifically proven fact. If on the other hand you are then your goal is to grow your portfolio more than you would if holding BTC/ETH for example.

Bitcoin is the big boy

How the market works is not easily identifiable if you haven't graduated from the 2017 crypto university. When there is a bull market everything seems amazingly profitable and things keep going up outgrowing Bitcoin by orders of magnitude and you are a genius. The problem with this is that it only works while Bitcoin is going up a little bit or trades sideways. When it decides to move big then altcoins lose value both on the way up and on the way down. The second part is obvious and proven since all altcoins from 2017 are at a fraction of their BTC value (usually in the range of 80% or more down). Also, when BTC is making a big move upwards everyone exits altcoins to ride the wave. It is possible that the altcoin market behaves as an inversed leveraged ETF with leakage where in a certain period while Bitcoin starts at 10k and ends at 10k for example, altcoins have lost a lot of value because of the above things happening.

We are doing it anyway champ!

OK so we understand the risks and just wanna gambol with our money right? I get it. Why do that? Because finding the ideal scenario and period can be extremely profitable. In 2017 several altcoins went up 40x more than BTC. But again, if you don't chose wisely many of them have gone back to zero (the author has first hand experience in this!), they have been delisted and nobody remembers them. The actual mentality to have is very important and resembles poker and other speculative games:
A certain altcoin can go up in value indefinitely but can only lose it's starting investment. Think about it. You either lose 1 metric or gain many many more. Now that sounds amazing but firstly as we said we have the goal to outperform our benchmark (BTC) and secondly that going up in value a lot means that the probability is quite low. There is this notion of Expected Value (EV) that poker players apply in these kind of situations and it goes like that. If you think that a certain coin has a probability let's say 10% to go up 10X and 90% probability it goes to zero it's an even bet. If you think that probability is 11% then it's a good bet, a profitable bet and you should take it. You get the point right? It's not that it can only go 10X or 0X, there is a whole range of probability outcomes that are too mathematical to explain here and it doesn't help so much because nobody can do such analysis with altcoins. See below on how we can approximate it.

How to evaluate altcoins

A range of different things to take into account outlined below will form our decision making. Not a single one of them should dictate 100% of our strategy.

Basics

It's all about market cap. Repeat after me. The price of a coin doesn't mean anything. Say it 10 times until you believe it. I can't remember how many times I had conversations with people that were comparing coins using their coin price instead of their market cap. To make this easy to get.
If I decide because the sky is blue to make my coin supply 100 Trillion FoolCoins with a price of $0.001 and there is another WiseCoin with a supply of 100 Million and price of $1 then FoolCoins are more expensive. - Alex Fin's Cap Law

Fundamental analysis

This is done usually in the stock world and it means that each company has some fundamental value that includes it's assets, customers, growth prospects, sector prospects and leadership competence but mostly centered in financial measures such as P/E ratios etc. Valuation is a proper economic discipline by itself taught in universities. OK, now throw everything out of the window!.
This kind of analysis is impossible in vague concepts and innovations that are currently cryptocurrencies. Ethereum was frequently priced at the fictional price of gas when all financial systems on earth run on the platform after decades (a bit of exaggeration here). No project is currently profitable enough to justify a valuation multiple that is usually equal to P/E in the thousands or more. As such we need to take other things into account. What I do is included in the list below:

Relative valuation

One of my favorite ways to value altcoins that is based on the same principle in the stock market is to look at peers and decide what is the maximum cap it can grow to. As an example you take a second layer Ethereum solution that has an ICO and you want to decide if you will enter or not. You can take a look at other coins that are in the same business and compare their market caps. Thinking that your coin will outperform by a lot the top coins currently is overly optimistic so I usually take a lower valuation as a target price. If the initial offering is directly implying a valuation that is more than that then there is no room to grow according to my analysis and I skip it. Many times this has proven me wrong because it's a game theory problem where if many people think irrationally in a market it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. But since there is opportunity cost involved, in the long run, getting in initial offerings that have a lot of room to grow will pay off as a strategy.

Sector prospects

In 2017 the sexiest sector was platforms and then coins including privacy ones. Platforms are obviously still a highly rated sector because everything is being built on them, but privacy is not as hot as it used to be. In 2018 DEXes were all they hype but still people are massively using centralized exchanges. In 2020 Defi is the hottest sector and it includes platforms, oracles and Defi projects. What I am saying is that a project gets extra points if it's a Defi one in 2020 and minus points if it's a payment system that will conquer the world as it was in 2017 because that's old news. This is closely related to the next section.

Hype

Needless to say that the crypto market is a worse FOMO type of inexperienced trigger happy yolo investors , much worse than the Robinhood crowd that drove a bankrupt company's stock 1200% after they declared bankruptcy. The result is that there are numerous projects that are basically either vaporware or just so overhyped that their valuation has no connection to reality. Should we avoid those kind of projects? No and I will explain why. There are many very good technically projects that had zero hype potential due to incompetent marketing departments that made them tank. An example (without shilling because I sold out a while back) is Quantum Resistant Ledger. This project has amazing quantum resistant blockchain, the only one running now, has a platform that people can build tokens and messaging systems and other magnificent stuff. Just check how they fared up to now and you will get the point. A project *needs* to have a hype factor because you cannot judge it as normal stocks that you can do value investing like Warren Buffet does where a company will inevitable post sales and profitability numbers and investors will get dividends. Actually the last sentence is the most important: No dividends. Even projects that give you tokens or coins as dividends are not real dividends because if the coin tanks the value of the dividend tanks. This is NOT the case with company stocks where you get dollars even if the company stock tanks. All that being said, I would advice against betting on projects that have a lot of hype but little substance (but that should be obvious!).

How to construct your portfolio

My strategy and philosophy in investing is that risk should be proportional to investment capital. That means that if you are investing 100K in the crypto market your portfolio should be very different than someone investing 1K because 10% annual gains are nothing in the latter while they are very significant in the former. Starting from this principle each individual needs to construct a portfolio according to how much risk he wants to take. I will emphasize two important concepts that play well with what I said. In the first instance of a big portfolio you should concentrate on this mantra: "Diversification is the only free meal in finance". In the case of a small portfolio then this mantra is more important: "Concentrate to create wealth, diversify to maintain wealth". Usually in a big portfolio you would want to hold some big coins such as BTC and ETH to weather the ups and downs explained in previous paragraphs while generating profits and keep progressively smaller parts of your portfolio for riskier investments. Maybe 50% of this portfolio could be big caps and 10% very risky initial offerings. Adapting risk progressively to smaller portfolios makes sense but I think it would be irrational to keep more than 30% of a portfolio no matter what tied to one coin due to the very high risk of bankruptcy.

Conclusion

The altseason is supposedly coming every 3 months. Truth is that nobody can predict it but altcoins can be profitable no matter what. Forget about maximalists who are stuck in their dogmas. Altcoins deliver different value propositions and it makes sense because we are very far from a situation where some project offers everything like Amazon and we wouldn't even want that in the first place since we are talking about decentralization and not a winner takes all and becomes a monster kind of scenario! Some last minute advice:
P.S If you find value in reading this and want more weekly consider subscribing to my newsletter here
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Weekly Update: Parachute Townhall, Welcome $GET to ParJar, Uptrennd reaches 50k members, Fantom on IncognitoChain... – 6 Dec - 12 Dec'19

Weekly Update: Parachute Townhall, Welcome $GET to ParJar, Uptrennd reaches 50k members, Fantom on IncognitoChain... – 6 Dec - 12 Dec'19
Hi Parachuters! As part of 2 of 3 from today's rapid catch up series of pending updates, here’s your week at Parachute + partners (6 Dec - 12 Dec'19):

As mentioned last week, Cap and Ice hosted a townhall to talk about where we are at and where we are heading along with ample feedback and Q&A from the community. We covered a lot of ground: "value hypothesis for ParJar, Product Market fit, and our growth approach for 2020...performance of two key PAR utility metrics, staking and gas, and how we see growth for each in 2020...questions from the community and reviewed upcoming community initiatives". Click here to catch up on all that happened. GET Protocol’s $GET token was added to ParJar this week. Belated Birthday wishes to Doc Vic from Cuba. Jason lost a 5k $PAR wager with Cap on Victor’s age. Haha. Congratulations to Martha for winning this week’s Parena. As per the latest Fantasy Premier League (#FPL) update shared by LordHades this week, he is still ruling the charts at the top with NovelCloud and Alexis hot on his heels. From next week, "You can now view your first opponent in the 2019/20 FPL Cup on the My Team page - under Leagues". While you slay those miles with the Parachute Running Club (which has done 44 miles so far BTW), here’s a podcast to listen to. Cap’s recommendation: "It's geared towards people building products - but super super useful to think about any products you use. Skip to like 9 minutes in to skip through all the advertiesments ". Yes, I know. Cap wouldn’t be Cap without typos. Typos FTW!
Parachute townhall
Parachute-themed shirts designed by Doc Vic and Alejandro on Doc’s birthday. These are sick!
If you want to see yourself on the Parachute world map, make sure to enter your location here. The entries are anonymous. In this week's Parachute Fantasy Football League update, Hang is in the first position followed by Clinton and Andy. Connor made it to the playoffs and is now in 4th position. So it means farewell to Nilz, Ken, Kamo and Cap from this season. CoD mobile players, don't forget to join the Parachute WarZone hosted by Doc Vic from Cuba. I hear there's $PAR and $AMGO to be won! The TTR Hat Contest ended this week with some solid entries running in the lead. Epic creation Wendell! In this week’s creative prompt by Jason, Parachuters had to “do 3 nice things for a total stranger”. Basically, be a true blue Parachuter 😊. For this week's Two-for-Tuesday, Gian made it free-for-all. No theme. Post music as you wish and win 500 $PAR. Cool! Benjamin and Charlotte hosted trivias in TTR this week. Those were loads of fun! Andy announced the start of a College Football Bowl Game Pickem contest in Parachute. 100k $PAR prize pool. Doc Vic hosted another round of Champions League wager this week in TTR.
So much epicness in one picture. Jose, you are a genius!
Andy's Advent Calendar journey continues
Catch up on the latest aXpire update and 20k AXPR burn here and here respectively. As you would already know, instead of pitting both startups against each other, XIO decided to accept both Opacity and Uptrennd into the incubator program and opened up staking for them. This marks the official launch of the XIO Blockchain Incubator and it’s been a roaring start with USD 7k worth of tokens locked up in one hour and Opacity portal getting oversubscribed in no time. Video instructions for staking can be found here. Read up on the startups here. In three days, the total staking crossed 1M XIO levels. Insane! That is a great metric to measure performance. How does the $XIO token play a role in all this? The crew explained in this tweet thread. And with that a series of related discussions got off starting with the possibility of self-nomination for startups. Have a sub-100 CMC project that you think should be part of the incubator? Don’t forget to tag them. Plus, a cool 25k $XIO giveaway was launched. Remember, meaningful conversation is always welcome at the incubator and more often than not, they get rewarded. Check out the latest update on the Birdchain App SMS feature along with an expanded list of supported countries. Silent Notary reduced the $LAW token requirement for running a Masternode from 100M to 20M this week. Russian research company sudexpa.ru also gave its vote of confidence to Silent Notary in terms of its immutability. Wibson Marketing Manager Fi Scantamburlo attended the Latin American Bitcoin Conference Uruguay to speak on Data privacy, monetisation and how Wibson helps achieve these. Opacity now allows shared file preview for uploaded docs.
Shared File Preview on Opacity
Fantom's foray into the Afghan Ministry of Health's efforts to fight counterfeit drugs and other public health initiatives were covered by Forbes this week. Last week, we shared that Sikoba's e-voting platform, Itugen, which is based on Fantom’s Lachesis consensus was released. This week, they published its technical whitepaper. With so many moving parts in the project and so much happening all around, a recap is always a welcome refresher to catch up. $FTM got listed on South Korea’s Coinone with a $KRW pairing. It was also integrated with the IncognitoChain project’s pDEX with a $pUSDT pairing (remember, Harmony was added to the same platform a few days back?). IncognitoChain allows cryptos to be transacted privately using sidechains including those coins/tokens which are not privacy-oriented. Fantom also launched a developer portal and technical documentation ahead of the XAR Network mainnet release. The interoperability bridge is out as well. This allows both ERC20 and BEP2 token holders to move their tokens to the XAR Network. The wallet allows both staking and delegation. For the guide to joining XAR Network as a validator node, click here. A simple guide to staking on XAR Network can be found here. The team also sat down for an AMA with COTI this week. Blockchain Magazine’s interview of Michael was published. Continuing with Uptrennd’s 24 Days of Celebrations started last week, this week they hosted an Escape Room contest and Photo contest. The latest $1UP tokenomics update can be seen here. After 11 months, the platform now has 50k users across 177 countries. Wowza! And wicked stats on the engagement metrics as well. Jeff’s interview with Crypto Beadles came out this week.
A few entries for the Uptrennd Photo Contest
Click here and here for the latest District Weekly and Dev Update from District0x. In case you missed this week’s Dapp Digest, you can watch it here. Aragon fans will be in for a treat since it features Aragon Co-Founder Luis Cuende as a special guest. Remember, we had discussed last week that the Shuffle Monster Raffle had crossed a 10k $SHUF pool. Turns out it got to 13k+. Wow! The latest Hydro developer update is a comprehensive roundup from the entire ecosystem. VCC Exchange listed $HYDRO with a $BTC pairing. Hydro’s security tokenisation protocol, Hail, moved to mainnet this week. The team travelled to Boston for MassChallenge Fintech. Hydro will be hosting a Banking-as-a-Service happy hour next week to talk on how they are building solutions in the BaaS space. For starters, don’t forget to read their article on blockchain applications in finance. The team appeared for an AMA with Apache Traders which also featured a 45k $HYDRO giveaway. Digital payments platform VoPay is now partnered with Hydro for end-to-end payment solutions using Hydrogen API and other Hydro tools. Hydro’s smart contract was audited by Callisto and passed their test with flying colours except for one "low severity" issue. The result: "The contract can be deployed". CTO Tim Allard was interviewed by Ethereum Network Nigeria as part of their Ethereum personality chat series. For the latest update on the community explorer Frost, click here. In Pynk’s first guest blog post, community member (or, Pynkster) Alistaire Wallace talks about what the coming year could hold for Pynk and its community of predictors. Check out the transcript of Sentivate’s AMA with tehMoonwalkeR here.
Sentivate’s new office in PA is shaping up quite well
This week at OST was all about the Pepo app: from angel investor Kartik to Rocket NFT’s Alex Masmej joining the platform, accelerator The Fledge using Pepo Conversations to power community-sourced improvements to businesses, Home for the Holidays Challenge to explain crypto/blockchain to relatives (with a total USD 2k in Pepo coins in prizes) and a “best lifehack” bounty posted by Jason on the app. If you’ve missed all SelfKey news from the past month, you can catch up from the November progress report. Also, did you know that the group Legion of Doom which was once considered to be the most capable hacking group in the world was in a long drawn feud with Masters of Deception in what is now known as the Great Hacker War? Learn more info like this from SelfKey’s latest article on hacking groups. Constellation CEO Ben Jorgensen will be speaking at the Crypto 2020 Summit. If you’re attending, make sure to say Hi. Arena Match announced a trading competition on DDEX with 4M $AMGO tokens to be won. Lucky Bluff Poker will be sponsoring next week’s Arena Match Raffle. The latest Harmony update compilation from the whole team can be found here. In the latest Pangea statistics (Harmony’s experimental staking game to test the limits of its tech), the average staking position is 1.8M $ONE with 75% of participants operate nodes themselves while the rest use delegates. Plus, check out the newest upgrades here. Honest Mining announced mainnet support for the native $ONE token swap. $ONE is also in consideration for listing on Binance US. The token was listed on Pionex this week. The Intellishare website registration and login functions will be down next week for a scheduled upgrade. Also, $INE traders make sure to keep a note of WBFex temporarily disabling the $ETH trading pair. Jobchain’s $JOB token got listed on Bilaxy exchange, P2PB2B exchange, SWFT Blockchain wallet and SWOP.SPACE exchange. The project was also given an A+ score by Xangle. Congrats!

And with that, it’s a wrap. See you again soon with another weekly update. Bye!
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"The Big Picture" - Dollar Vigilante November Newsletter

It has been an interesting week for me.
First, I was invited to speak at World Crypto CON in Las Vegas and then shortly before the event they told me I couldn’t speak. At the same time they told most of my other anarchist friends they also couldn’t speak and/or they were banned from the event, including Ben Swann, Luke Rudkowski and Josh Sigurdson of World Alternative Media.
I was already in Texas for the Texas Bitcoin Conference and I mostly just wanted to play in their crypto poker tournament anyway so I went to Vegas.
All manner of strange people seemed to be coming up to me, including one woman speaking in tongues. And, a weird energy surrounded the event... so much so that my body was shaking the entire time.
Then they also didn’t allow me to play in the poker event! I paid one guy some BTC to buy his chips and they threatened to call the police on me! I know what happens next when that happens so I left the premises.
Later that night, Josh Sigurdson was poisoned and barely survived. Other anarchists I knew who were there were being accosted, having their phones stolen and other aggressions.
I should mention this all occurred on Halloween. Day of the dead. Whatever happened, karma struck instantly and no one showed up! I then got a message from my wife that she wanted me to come home immediately and I was happy to do so.
She told me that God told her that we had to tell everyone to repent immediately before it was too late and she went into two days of screaming, crying and became delirious after three days without eating or sleeping.
Eventually we had to get her to the hospital to get her calmed down. I’ve spent the last two days with her there and we just returned home as they gave her a number of things to relax her.
Is something strange going on? It sure feels like it. In any case, as I stated in the last newsletter, no matter what happens I am just going to continue on with my work (although spending more time with my family is also a priority) helping people to wake up... that’s all I can do.
Current Events
As I write it is the midterm selections in the USSA. Yet another, “most important election in our lifetime.” All fear propaganda to try to make believe that voting will fix this evil system of slavery. It won’t. But, when they say this is the "election of our lifetimes" they are right on one thing. Politics, central banks and government are very close to destroying the entire world.
Elect to walk away from it all now before it is too late. I know I don’t have to tell TDVers that but it is worth reiterating.
And, the results are in. Anarchy won like it has every single selection.
And the wars continue killing or destroying the lives of millions of innocents, Americans continue to get extorted for trillions of dollars per year, millions of innocents remain in cages in rape camps and the Federal Reserve continues to impoverish and steal from everyone.
Meanwhile, in things that actually matter, the battle over bitcoin has hastened dramatically. But, you wouldn’t know it from the price action.
The complete lack of volatility has only gotten worse (or better if you are in the “volatility is bad for bitcoin” camp).
Here is a chart of bitcoin on October 27th.
For a 24 hour period it traded within a $15 band! It’s like the whole world is just waiting to see what happens next.
And, what will happen next? I am still expecting a panic sell-off along with all worldwide markets followed by a price explosion.
We did make it through October without that happening, but I have pointed out November is also a prime month for it to occur. If nothing major occurs in November then I may have to reassess.
The US stock markets continue to hang in there but really only propped up by a minority of stocks as this tweet from early October points out.
Bank stocks, which are probably one of the most important to watch are off 17% from January of this year.
Meanwhile, crypto exchange Binance made more profit than Deutsche Bank in the second quarter of this year!
As I said last issue, things really couldn’t be going better for the cryptospace, right as it appears that bank stocks and the market as a whole is on the verge of collapse.
On October 26th, the CEO of Visa, Al Kelly, said that he “certainly” does not view cryptocurrencies as a threat to his business right now, but added that “if we have to go there, we’ll go there.”
You’ll have to go there Kelly... better start working on your resume. Taiwanese smartphone maker HTC is about to release its first blockchain-powered handset in cryptocurrencies, making it the first big name in the industry to accept only digital currencies as payment.
Exodus 1, the first version of HTC’s blockchain phone, is priced at 0.15 BTC or 4.78 ETH, which in current trading equates to about US$960.
HTC first announced the Exodus phone in May, which features a built-in digital wallet that will enable users to store and trade cryptocurrencies.
But, the game changing news is that ICE, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, has announced they will launch their new digital asset platform, Baakt, on December 12th. This will enable traditional institutional investors to easily invest into the bitcoin market.
The total bitcoin market right now is about a $110 billion market cap.
Total value of financial asset worldwide is estimated to be over $300 trillion. Which means bitcoin is only 0.03% of total financial assets held in the world.
If, say, only 1% of that $300 trillion were to go into bitcoin, that would mean $3 trillion would be trying to enter a market worth $100 billion.
In other words, if you don’t own bitcoin and other cryptos by December 12th... don’t do that. And, don’t forget precious metals either.
FinIst analyst Denis Lisitsyn recently said on RT, “The aggressive US policy in recent years has forced some countries to look for an alternative to the dollar and replenish their gold reserves. Worries about the future growth of global economy are an additional incentive for purchases. Many question Donald Trump’s protectionism.”
Sounds like he has been listening to TDV’s Ed Bugos!
In the same article, Vladimir Rojankovsky, LIFA, expert at the International Financial Center said that Hungary, Poland, Russia, China, India, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are all hoarding gold.
This, after Russian ownership of US Treasury bonds dropped from $96.1 billion in March to an 11-year low of $14.9 billion in May.
The writing is on the wall. And almost the entire public has no idea what is happening.
Luckily you do, so stick with us here as we give you are best guidance on how to survive and prosper during and after the dollar collapse.
And get right with your family and God. I’ve had a few moments in the last week where I thought it might be all over and each time I felt despondent knowing I still haven’t done enough. Don’t wait too long.
Coming Events
Due to my wife being in the hospital recently I cancelled going to Steemfest in Poland. I was also going to go to Iran and Iraq on that trip. But, I’ve decided family has to come before work in this respect.
Which means, really, my next major events are close to home with the TDV Summit on February 12-13th and Anarchapulco/Cryptopulco from February 14-17th.
I couldn’t help notice that World Crypto Con, which seemed to be out to kill all of us anarchists, was on October 31st and Anarchapulco starts on Valentine’s Day. Because it is really all about love.
If you haven’t checked out the TDV Summit page lately, check it out. We’ve added a number of great speakers and I still have a few surprises to announce. It is two full days this year and I am able to focus on it fully for the first time as we have a professional management team running Anarchapulco now. And, included in the price is a gala dinner to be held on the evening of February 12th.
And, Anarchapulco just released its main stage speaker list (there will be 5 stages this year). It’s quite the list! Jeffrey Tucker - Anarchapulco Master of Ceremonies
Ron Paul Former - Congressman, Author of 'End the Fed'
Andrew Napolitano - Senior Judicial Analyst for Fox News
David Icke - Ground breaking Author & Public Speaker
Doug Casey - Founder of Casey Research
Cynthia McKinney - Activist, Former US Representative
Jeff Berwick - Founder of Anarchapulco, The Dollar Vigilante, and Anarchast
Dayna Martin - Author, Speaker, Midwife, Unschooling & Peaceful Parenting Advocate
Derrick Broze - Creator, The Conscious Resistance Network
Luke Rudkowski - Journalist, Founder of WeAreChange.org
Max Igan - Host of The Crowhouse
G. Edward Griffin - Author of 'Creature from Jekyll Island'
Mark Passio - Independent Researcher
Sasha Daygame - Author, Men’s Coach, Spiritual Adventurer
Ole Dammegard - Truth Seeker, Code Breaker, and Peace Maker
Thaddeus Russell - Historian, Podcaster, Founder of Renegade University
Anil Gupta - Author of 'Immediate Happiness'
Brien Foerster - Author of 'Lost Ancient Technology'
Eric July - Frontman of BackWordz, Co-founder of Being Libertarian
Matt Phillips - Past President of Free State Project, Ambassador, Activist, Entrepreneur - Dr. Sherri Tenpenny
Physician Entrepreneur & Vaccine Activist
Vit Jedlicka - President of Liberland
Joe Quirk - President of The Seasteading Institute
Becca Tzigany - Activist & Author, Venus and Her Lover
Joel Bowman - International Man
Jonny Dupre - Psycho-Social Coach & Trainer - The International Man
Vin Armani - CryptoSavage
Avens O'Brien - 2nd Generation Liberty Activist
Tim Moen - Leader of the Libertarian Party of Canada
Gina Carr - Blockchain Company Leader, Author, Emerging Technology Expert
Tata Meche, José Merced Velazquez Pañeda Tata - Town Elder, Cheran, Michoacan
There are even more announcements soon, including Larken Rose and many more. And, we haven’t announced the Cryptopulco speaker list yet. It should come out in the next week. You won’t want to miss it.
Anarchapulco will likely sell out by January. And all 1,000 rooms in the Princess Hotel are already close to sold out, so if you want to stay on premises, make sure to book your room now. If you miss it, don’t worry, we’ll likely be filling up a hotel nearby down the beach too!
And, don’t worry about what might happen in the future. Live in the present. Own some precious metals and cryptocurrency. Work on yourself, physically, mentally and spiritually. And spend more time with your loved ones.
Everything else will work itself out.
Now, I’m going to go watch Lord of the Rings with my wife and kids. “Hey kids, did you know that ring of power is an allegory for central banks and government?”
Thank you, as always, for being a subscriber!
Jeff Berwick
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A long story and lesson about trusting people and managing expectations

So I'm not sure I'd you guys will enjoy this story or if it will just be removed but I currently need to vent because well this happened. And I've lost alot of faith in people. If you don't feel like reading the whole thing I tried to put a TL;DR in each paragraph.
Trading- So to kindof preface the story, I am a young guy that is very interested in all things finance such as investing/trading. Because of this I got involved into the Foreign Exchange market(Forex) at the beginning of 2016 and I got very lucky going from $200 to ~$15,000 in 6 months and then unluckily went from ~$15,000 to $0 in less than a minute. So while I was trading this I still worked my normal job(military) and at this job people knew I was trading and doing quite well, they'd frequently ask where I'm at with my trading. So when I lost everything I still thought I will trade again but I'll wait until the new year of 2017. -TL;DR- 2016- Young, like finance, made alot of money, lost all of it and plan to try again.
First half of 2017- So during my trading in 2016 I had offered to alot of people at work that I would teach them or show them how to trade. At the time I really just wanted to have someone at work to talk about trading because all I really had was Reddit for Forex talk. So in 2017 I start up again and one of the Civilians I work with decides he wants to join me in trading (most military jobs have civilian slots where they do basically the same thing but get paid 2-3x more, in this case retired mil now civilian). So I help him get setup very excitedly because I finally have someone to talk about trading with he also says he will put in ~$200 to start with as well. So I think oh awesome I can teach you better since our accounts will be the same, so I trade by myself talking to let's call him Civ about trading consistently for about 3-4 weeks. One day suddenly Civ says "hey I put money into my account what are we trading today?" So obviously I'm like "awesome today I'm gonna trade this pair and I think it's a good setup" Civ says OK I put a trade in. So I go about my day and I don't see him until around the end of the day and our trade did go well, I had made about $45 on my at the time $130 account so I'm pretty happy at this point. So I see Civ and he's like super happy and this was our conversation Civ- "wow that was a good trade man" Me-"Yeah pretty good return for a day" Civ- "So how much did you make today?" Me- "I made $45 so like 40ish% pretty sweet" Civ- "man I made a little over $70,000" yes that is $70,000 Me- "....What the fuck? But how?" Civ- "well I kindof put in close to $75,000!" Me- "but even if you scaled up how did you make almost 100%?" Civ- "well I kindof just put in a trade as if I had $200,000 in the account, and then I did another one" So at this point I'm just completely blown away that he just made double what I make in a year in under 8 hours, but after the complete shock and awe wears off I'm legitimately happy for him because I helped in the trade but it definitely made my $45 feel like nothing.
So to speed this story up what I just said above actually happens about 3 more times to the point where he makes over $140,000 thanks to the trades that I let him know about. But eventually I start to seriously resent him cause his true character starts to show in a series of events. First he starts to claim the trades were all his idea never even giving me credit, second he never even thanks me for helping him make 4 times as much as I get a year. Third he Basicly tries to rub it in my face a few times throughout this mess saying things like "you should put more money in so you can make more" or "just put half you paycheck in" which is pretty much impossible considering I'm a young E3 at the time and I don't have just money to blow. And fourth he tries to throw me under the bus multiple times for things I didn't do at work. Now here comes in Dirtbags 1 and 2 these two are the worst enlisted personnel I've ever seen but are basically protected by Civ he always stands up for them to higher ups and keeps them from getting in trouble by blaming others for there mistakes and they know this(They will be important later on). There is alot of icing on the cake as far as these 3 but I'm not gonna make this story any longer than it has to be. TL;DR- Help Civ make shitloads of money, Civ shits on me and starts a Sortof witch hunt after me, no longer trade with Civ.
Civ in a nutshell- now this Summary of who Civ is isn't really important to the story(skip if ud like) but I felt a need to explain this guy so that people have an understanding of who I'm dealing with. Civ is Basicly a true narcissist he encompasses every meaning of the word. At work he chooses favourites and actively tries to ruin the careers of everyone that isn't his favourite and he's one of those people that laughs about everything he says, he does this so that he can decide based on your reaction if he wants it to be a joke or be serious since every "joke" is in a somewhat demeaning tone. He knows nothing about saving or investing in fact he actually gambles everyday via online poker or fantasy football, during football season hes openly said he gambles over $500 a day since he "wins quite frequently". He's a 45 year old man with a family and kids but he expects invites too all the house parties that people at work have and if he doesn't he has a legitimate hissy fit where I've seen him actually curse people out about how he will no longer invite anyone else to do anything with him(he doesn't do anything tho). He tries to be the guy at work thats "just so cool you gotta be friends with him" but there's a few of us who see straight through his lies and BS. TL;DR- Civ=Narcissistic man child with a gambling problem.
Second half of 2017- So I no longer really talk to Civ we talk work related stuff here and there at this point I know he's very two faced and selfish so I avoid him because I can see straight through it. In around July we have a conversation about the up and coming Crypto currencies I tell him I don't really have any idea how to judge if they will keep going up or not. Supposedly Civ buys 0.30-0.40 a Bitcoin(BTC) not sure the price he got it at. Around this time he was pestering me for trades everyday which at this point I'd lost what I put in so I was no longer trading. But when I'd tell him that he took it personally kindof as if I owe him more trades(wtf right?) So I just basically ignore his asshole tones and go about my day. Around this time Civ gets out of Forex he tells me he withdrew over $240,000. Also tells me he never told his wife he made anything and that she thinks he only has like $2,000 in the account(more signs of a gambling addiction).
FAST FORWARD to about 2-3 weeks ago- At this point I really don't care about Civ being ungrateful of all the money I've made him and in my life im getting hardcore into crypto currencies. I see BTC hit an insane high of over $18,000 and I see Civ the next day and ask about the BTC he bought he says he's still got it not paying attention to BTC at all tho so I tell him about it and how it could be a time to get out and get into something else so he says OK and that he will look into it. Next day Civ says hey I got out what should I do with it I want to keep it in Crypto, so I tell him about Litecoin and how it's cheaper and promising so he buys 55 Litecoin. (Why am I still helping this guy right? I have no idea)
FAST FORWARD to this week- Litecoin explodes to $335 a coin when Civ got in at $90 a coin so he makes about $18,000. I'm pretty happy for him because I called another good investment even tho my little $350 crypto account hardly moved, at this point I don't expect anything from Civ because I expect he's still two faced. This time I actually show him the Litecoin price at work and he's super happy and actually thanks me so I'm like wow that's surprising. But then proceeds to tell co-worker's that he did this on his own (of course). Civ then asks me what he should do now. So at this point I just think well whatever I'm used to this and I'm never getting anything out of this so what's one last investment that I give him gonna hurt right? So I tell Civ about other altcoins on Binance.com and how he needs to get a Binance account to get to them instead of his Currently Coinbase account so he is like okay cool.
NOW IT GETS FUCKING INTERESTING- so I tell Civ to get a Binance account and what Coins could be big here soon and he says he will make an account. Remember that Binance has a referral system going on and so I look into it and see that Binance would give me 50% OF WHAT HE DEPOSITS AS A REFERRAL REWARD AND IM FINALLY GONNA GET SOME SORT OF REWARD FOR ALL THE MONEY I'VE HELPED HIM MAKE AND IT WON'T COST HIM ANYTHING. It hits me like a freight train that if he uses my referral code I can get potentially $8,000 into my little coin account. I start to get excited BUT then remember who I'm dealing with so first I sent him my referral code and he says "cool no problem" then I start to think shit what if he forgets to put the code in so I text him again but this time IFU by saying
"Hey if you have any questions let me know just don't forget to put in my Referral code cause I get free BTC lol" .....TIFU by showing a narcissist how to fuck someone over....AGAIN.
So on the Binance referral page it shows you the first few letters of the person's email that used the referral and how much commission you have made from said person. Civ says he's going to make an account on Binance that night I say OK cool. That night my referral page gets one attached email that doesn't have letters I'm expecting so I'm kindof confused then I remember Civ is a 45 year old Neckbeard gamer so he likely had a wierd email address. No big deal, I see Civ next day at work and ask him how his account setup went (usually takes a few days) he says great and that DIRTBAG #2 also wants to get into crypto so he gave DB2 my referral code.
.... Wait a minute the email attached to my account was actually DB2s because the first letters are his Initials of his name no doubt about it. But I don't think this is wierd at the time I carry on through out my week.
UNTIL TODAY(Yes an actual TIFU) I see Civ at work (this is three days after he was supposed to setup his account and it still hasn't popped up on my referral list) and he says "I'm actually gonna not put money in to anything without doing research" this to me is wierd because for the last year he's made over $155,000 by literally doing no research and just listening to me. So I say cool whatever good idea. Meanwhile I'm also weirded out by how DB2 has not talked to me about crypto at all since using my referral code and he's been in this extremely happy mood lately so I'm like wtf is going on? Since I had taught DB2 Forex less than a year ago and he had the IQ of a house fly this strikes me as extremely odd compared to when I taught him last he wouldn't stop asking questions.
BUT THEN IT HIT ME today when I got home I checked my referrals again because I was still pretty excited for $8,000 and how much it will help me and my wife with Christmas this year and then seeing that he hasn't popped up on the referral list it dawned on me.
When I exposed that I would get free BTC to Civ he took it upon himself to have DB2 create an account on Binance and use my referral code so that I would think this was Civ meanwhile Civ put in DB2s referral code giving DB2 $8,000 and then he proceeds to lie to me. Going into investigative mode after calming down from an absolute rage I text DB2 knowing he literally knows Zero about crypto and my hypothesis being very very plausible I go to the weakest link directly and that's the low IQ DB2 and I start to talk to him about crypto first he says he has a Binance account with a bit of coins so I ask him what's next and he tells me he needs to get a coinbase account...... Which is Basicly the only way to put money into crypto so I ask him how he put money in before if he wasn't using coinbase and he says "I think it was Coinable.com" So I continue the conversation about crypto trying to get more of a clue of what Coins he owns he of course lists the exact list I gave Civ earlier that week . At this point I'm about 98% sure my hypothesis is correct and that I work with two of the most narcissistic people I've ever met. BUT THEN I get confirmation in the form of DB2 Being so clueless about crypto because he explains that he has "about 0.23 of BTC" which is roughly $4,000 which I know DB2 Does not have due to the fact that he recently totaled his 4th car this year.
So Civ had DB2 create an account on Binance in order to give DB2 $8,000 in free money and to avoid giving me a single dime even tho I'm the one that's helped him make over $155,000 this year and then continues to lie to me thinking that I'm to stupid to figure this out. This is the single most fucked up thing I've ever personally seen happen to someone, and of course that someone is myself.
Also to clarify the $8,000 does not come out of Civs pocket it comes out of Binances pocket as a thank you to getting people on their site so literally wouldn't cost Civ a dime.
TL;DR(FULL) I help a narcissistic piece of shit make over $155,000 in a year and he avoids giving me anything in return at all at all costs.
Now myself personally I made the mistake of putting myself in Civs shoes, you have a 21 year old guy at work that helps you make over a years salary and so I thought oh I'd totally being super appreciative and buy him lunch or maybe dgive him less than 1% of what he just earned you but this is where I really fucked up. In starting to put myself in his shoes I started to just completely resent Civ and everything about him because I started to feel like I deserve something. In the Forex community there are people who will trade your money for you or give you signals and those people can make lots of money either % returns of each trade or $ amounts for each signal. Looking back I shouldof come up with a Sortof contract after that first trade with Civ but at the time I didn't know what kindof person he really was.
I'm posting it here because it's kindof a lesson I've now learned on not to trust people to be decent to you in return when it comes to investing/trading I've learned that as you guys have probably seen or know about how certain people get extremely inflated ego when it comes to trading/investing. And if your ever in a situation where you could make someone alot of money just do yourself a favour and draft a small document of how that person should give you about 10% of what they make. That alone should tell you what you need to know about the person is how they react to signing a contract like that. Take it from a practically broke Enlisted member who just made a well off guy way more cushioned.
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"The Big Picture" - Dollar Vigilante November Newsletter

It has been an interesting week for me.
First, I was invited to speak at World Crypto CON in Las Vegas and then shortly before the event they told me I couldn’t speak. At the same time they told most of my other anarchist friends they also couldn’t speak and/or they were banned from the event, including Ben Swann, Luke Rudkowski and Josh Sigurdson of World Alternative Media.
I was already in Texas for the Texas Bitcoin Conference and I mostly just wanted to play in their crypto poker tournament anyway so I went to Vegas.
All manner of strange people seemed to be coming up to me, including one woman speaking in tongues. And, a weird energy surrounded the event... so much so that my body was shaking the entire time.
Then they also didn’t allow me to play in the poker event! I paid one guy some BTC to buy his chips and they threatened to call the police on me! I know what happens next when that happens so I left the premises.
Later that night, Josh Sigurdson was poisoned and barely survived. Other anarchists I knew who were there were being accosted, having their phones stolen and other aggressions.
I should mention this all occurred on Halloween. Day of the dead. Whatever happened, karma struck instantly and no one showed up! I then got a message from my wife that she wanted me to come home immediately and I was happy to do so.
She told me that God told her that we had to tell everyone to repent immediately before it was too late and she went into two days of screaming, crying and became delirious after three days without eating or sleeping.
Eventually we had to get her to the hospital to get her calmed down. I’ve spent the last two days with her there and we just returned home as they gave her a number of things to relax her.
Is something strange going on? It sure feels like it. In any case, as I stated in the last newsletter, no matter what happens I am just going to continue on with my work (although spending more time with my family is also a priority) helping people to wake up... that’s all I can do.
Current Events
As I write it is the midterm selections in the USSA. Yet another, “most important election in our lifetime.” All fear propaganda to try to make believe that voting will fix this evil system of slavery. It won’t. But, when they say this is the "election of our lifetimes" they are right on one thing. Politics, central banks and government are very close to destroying the entire world.
Elect to walk away from it all now before it is too late. I know I don’t have to tell TDVers that but it is worth reiterating.
And, the results are in. Anarchy won like it has every single selection.
And the wars continue killing or destroying the lives of millions of innocents, Americans continue to get extorted for trillions of dollars per year, millions of innocents remain in cages in rape camps and the Federal Reserve continues to impoverish and steal from everyone.
Meanwhile, in things that actually matter, the battle over bitcoin has hastened dramatically. But, you wouldn’t know it from the price action.
The complete lack of volatility has only gotten worse (or better if you are in the “volatility is bad for bitcoin” camp).
Here is a chart of bitcoin on October 27th.
For a 24 hour period it traded within a $15 band! It’s like the whole world is just waiting to see what happens next.
And, what will happen next? I am still expecting a panic sell-off along with all worldwide markets followed by a price explosion.
We did make it through October without that happening, but I have pointed out November is also a prime month for it to occur. If nothing major occurs in November then I may have to reassess.
The US stock markets continue to hang in there but really only propped up by a minority of stocks as this tweet from early October points out.
Bank stocks, which are probably one of the most important to watch are off 17% from January of this year.
Meanwhile, crypto exchange Binance made more profit than Deutsche Bank in the second quarter of this year!
As I said last issue, things really couldn’t be going better for the cryptospace, right as it appears that bank stocks and the market as a whole is on the verge of collapse.
On October 26th, the CEO of Visa, Al Kelly, said that he “certainly” does not view cryptocurrencies as a threat to his business right now, but added that “if we have to go there, we’ll go there.”
You’ll have to go there Kelly... better start working on your resume. Taiwanese smartphone maker HTC is about to release its first blockchain-powered handset in cryptocurrencies, making it the first big name in the industry to accept only digital currencies as payment.
Exodus 1, the first version of HTC’s blockchain phone, is priced at 0.15 BTC or 4.78 ETH, which in current trading equates to about US$960.
HTC first announced the Exodus phone in May, which features a built-in digital wallet that will enable users to store and trade cryptocurrencies.
But, the game changing news is that ICE, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, has announced they will launch their new digital asset platform, Baakt, on December 12th. This will enable traditional institutional investors to easily invest into the bitcoin market.
The total bitcoin market right now is about a $110 billion market cap.
Total value of financial asset worldwide is estimated to be over $300 trillion. Which means bitcoin is only 0.03% of total financial assets held in the world.
If, say, only 1% of that $300 trillion were to go into bitcoin, that would mean $3 trillion would be trying to enter a market worth $100 billion.
In other words, if you don’t own bitcoin and other cryptos by December 12th... don’t do that. And, don’t forget precious metals either.
FinIst analyst Denis Lisitsyn recently said on RT, “The aggressive US policy in recent years has forced some countries to look for an alternative to the dollar and replenish their gold reserves. Worries about the future growth of global economy are an additional incentive for purchases. Many question Donald Trump’s protectionism.”
Sounds like he has been listening to TDV’s Ed Bugos!
In the same article, Vladimir Rojankovsky, LIFA, expert at the International Financial Center said that Hungary, Poland, Russia, China, India, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are all hoarding gold.
This, after Russian ownership of US Treasury bonds dropped from $96.1 billion in March to an 11-year low of $14.9 billion in May.
The writing is on the wall. And almost the entire public has no idea what is happening.
Luckily you do, so stick with us here as we give you are best guidance on how to survive and prosper during and after the dollar collapse.
And get right with your family and God. I’ve had a few moments in the last week where I thought it might be all over and each time I felt despondent knowing I still haven’t done enough. Don’t wait too long.
Coming Events
Due to my wife being in the hospital recently I cancelled going to Steemfest in Poland. I was also going to go to Iran and Iraq on that trip. But, I’ve decided family has to come before work in this respect.
Which means, really, my next major events are close to home with the TDV Summit on February 12-13th and Anarchapulco/Cryptopulco from February 14-17th.
I couldn’t help notice that World Crypto Con, which seemed to be out to kill all of us anarchists, was on October 31st and Anarchapulco starts on Valentine’s Day. Because it is really all about love.
If you haven’t checked out the TDV Summit page lately, check it out. We’ve added a number of great speakers and I still have a few surprises to announce. It is two full days this year and I am able to focus on it fully for the first time as we have a professional management team running Anarchapulco now. And, included in the price is a gala dinner to be held on the evening of February 12th.
And, Anarchapulco just released its main stage speaker list (there will be 5 stages this year). It’s quite the list! Jeffrey Tucker - Anarchapulco Master of Ceremonies
Ron Paul Former - Congressman, Author of 'End the Fed'
Andrew Napolitano - Senior Judicial Analyst for Fox News
David Icke - Ground breaking Author & Public Speaker
Doug Casey - Founder of Casey Research
Cynthia McKinney - Activist, Former US Representative
Jeff Berwick - Founder of Anarchapulco, The Dollar Vigilante, and Anarchast
Dayna Martin - Author, Speaker, Midwife, Unschooling & Peaceful Parenting Advocate
Derrick Broze - Creator, The Conscious Resistance Network
Luke Rudkowski - Journalist, Founder of WeAreChange.org
Max Igan - Host of The Crowhouse
G. Edward Griffin - Author of 'Creature from Jekyll Island'
Mark Passio - Independent Researcher
Sasha Daygame - Author, Men’s Coach, Spiritual Adventurer
Ole Dammegard - Truth Seeker, Code Breaker, and Peace Maker
Thaddeus Russell - Historian, Podcaster, Founder of Renegade University
Anil Gupta - Author of 'Immediate Happiness'
Brien Foerster - Author of 'Lost Ancient Technology'
Eric July - Frontman of BackWordz, Co-founder of Being Libertarian
Matt Phillips - Past President of Free State Project, Ambassador, Activist, Entrepreneur - Dr. Sherri Tenpenny
Physician Entrepreneur & Vaccine Activist
Vit Jedlicka - President of Liberland
Joe Quirk - President of The Seasteading Institute
Becca Tzigany - Activist & Author, Venus and Her Lover
Joel Bowman - International Man
Jonny Dupre - Psycho-Social Coach & Trainer - The International Man
Vin Armani - CryptoSavage
Avens O'Brien - 2nd Generation Liberty Activist
Tim Moen - Leader of the Libertarian Party of Canada
Gina Carr - Blockchain Company Leader, Author, Emerging Technology Expert
Tata Meche, José Merced Velazquez Pañeda Tata - Town Elder, Cheran, Michoacan
There are even more announcements soon, including Larken Rose and many more. And, we haven’t announced the Cryptopulco speaker list yet. It should come out in the next week. You won’t want to miss it.
Anarchapulco will likely sell out by January. And all 1,000 rooms in the Princess Hotel are already close to sold out, so if you want to stay on premises, make sure to book your room now. If you miss it, don’t worry, we’ll likely be filling up a hotel nearby down the beach too!
And, don’t worry about what might happen in the future. Live in the present. Own some precious metals and cryptocurrency. Work on yourself, physically, mentally and spiritually. And spend more time with your loved ones.
Everything else will work itself out.
Now, I’m going to go watch Lord of the Rings with my wife and kids. “Hey kids, did you know that ring of power is an allegory for central banks and government?”
Thank you, as always, for being a subscriber!
Jeff Berwick
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